Published evidence / Open chart

A warmer world. Different winters.

Name: Global surface temperature change: published climate evidence
Creator: PeakWave

Global surface temperature change

Period2081–2100

Baseline1850–1900

Best estimates and very likely ranges · °C

Pathways have no assigned probabilities. These global averages do not predict a local winter.

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The values behind the chart

Best estimates and very likely ranges. Units: °C.
Series	Published value
SSP1-2.6	1.8 (1.3–2.4) °C
SSP2-4.5 · selected	2.7 (2.1–3.5) °C
SSP3-7.0	3.6 (2.8–4.6) °C

Method and original sources

IPCC AR6 WGI Table SPM.1. Each value is a 20-year global average for a conditional emissions pathway.

IPCC AR6 · warming · 2021 ↗

Table SPM.1. Global surface temperature relative to 1850–1900; best estimates and very likely ranges. SSPs are conditional pathways, not probability-ranked forecasts.

Evidence reviewed 2026-10-11. Source publication dates are shown separately. This chart republishes selected findings; it does not calculate a local climate forecast.

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