Model means and 5–95% model ranges · °C
This is a temperature change, not absolute water temperature or a forecast for a particular beach.
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Published evidence / Open chart
A warmer sea, even between heatwaves.
Global mean sea-surface temperature change
The values behind the chart
| Series | Published value |
|---|---|
| SSP1-2.6 | 0.86 (0.43–1.47) °C |
| SSP2-4.5 · selected | 1.51 (1.02–2.19) °C |
| SSP3-7.0 | 2.19 (1.56–3.3) °C |
Method and original sources
IPCC AR6 WGI section 9.2.1.1 and Figure 9.3. The detailed CMIP6 assessment uses a recent baseline, unlike the pre-industrial global warming chart.
IPCC AR6 · sea temperature · 2021 ↗
Section 9.2.1.1 and Figure 9.3. Global mean sea-surface temperature change in 2081–2100 versus 1995–2014; CMIP6 means and 5–95% model ranges from the chapter's detailed assessment. This is neither absolute water temperature nor a beach-level forecast.
Evidence reviewed 2026-10-11. Source publication dates are shown separately. This chart republishes selected findings; it does not calculate a local climate forecast.
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