Published evidence / Open chart

Marine heatwaves become more frequent.

Name: Global marine heatwave frequency: published climate evidence
Creator: PeakWave

Global marine heatwave frequency

Period2081–2100

Baseline1995–2014 frequency

Reported projection ranges; no central estimate supplied · ×

The higher pathway here is SSP5-8.5, unlike SSP3-7.0 in the warming chart. This is not a beach-level prediction.

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The values behind the chart

Reported projection ranges; no central estimate supplied. Units: ×.
Series	Published value
Lower · SSP1-2.6 · selected	2–9 ×
Very high · SSP5-8.5	4–18 ×

Method and original sources

IPCC AR6 WGI section 12.4.7 and Box 9.2. Multipliers compare future frequency with the reference period.

IPCC AR6 · marine heatwaves · 2021 ↗

Section 12.4.7 and Box 9.2: global frequency in 2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014. Reported model ranges, not a prediction for a particular beach.

Evidence reviewed 2026-10-11. Source publication dates are shown separately. This chart republishes selected findings; it does not calculate a local climate forecast.

Cite PeakWave and the original sources. Consult the original sources for their reuse terms. Downloaded CSV and SVG files retain the selected view and its provenance.