70–90% at 1.5°C: high confidence; more than 99% at 2°C: very high confidence · %
These are projected declines from the assessment baseline, not measured reef loss since 2026.
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Published evidence / Open chart
Half a degree matters to a living reef.
Further decline in warm-water coral reefs
The values behind the chart
| Series | Published value |
|---|---|
| +1.5°C warming · selected | 70–90 % |
| +2°C warming | >99 % |
Method and original sources
IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, Summary for Policymakers. The greater-than sign is part of the reported finding; 99% is not an exact estimate.
IPCC · coral reefs · 2018 ↗
Further warm-water coral reef decline of 70–90% at 1.5°C (high confidence) and more than 99% at 2°C (very high confidence), compared with the report's present-day baseline. Not a measurement of reef loss since 2026.
Evidence reviewed 2026-10-11. Source publication dates are shown separately. This chart republishes selected findings; it does not calculate a local climate forecast.
Cite PeakWave and the original sources. Consult the original sources for their reuse terms. Downloaded CSV and SVG files retain the selected view and its provenance.