Weather and soil data from Open-Meteo, refreshed every 3 hours.
How the score works
Every spot gets a composite score out of 10. Two layers combine: trail condition (soil state) and weather window (best 4-hour riding block). Ceiling caps prevent inflated scores when one layer is poor.
Soil moisture across four depths, freeze-thaw state, drying trajectory. Hero dirt (tackily damp) scores highest. Saturated or freeze-thaw mud scores lowest.
Best contiguous 4-hour block of daylight conditions: temperature, precipitation, thunderstorm risk, wind, visibility, and sky. Scored per hour, averaged.
Weighted average of four soil layers (0-1cm, 1-3cm, 3-9cm, 9-27cm). The sweet spot is 0.10-0.14 m³/m³: enough moisture for tack, not enough for mud.
CAPE, lifted index, and convective inhibition combined. Mountain afternoon thunderstorms are the biggest ride-ending hazard in summer.
Frequently asked questions
How often is this updated?
Every 3 hours from Open-Meteo forecast data. Soil moisture and temperature use modelled data at the trail elevation for each location. Historical data from previous days feeds the drying trajectory calculation.
How is the MTB score calculated?
Two layers combined: Trail Condition (45% weight) covers soil moisture, freeze-thaw state, and drying trajectory. Weather Window (55%) finds the best contiguous 4-hour riding block and scores temperature, precipitation, thunderstorms, wind, visibility, and sky. The composite has ceiling caps so neither great trails nor great weather alone can produce an inflated score.
Why does it use base elevation, not summit?
Mountain bike trails typically sit at valley and mid-mountain elevation, not at the ski-area summit. Each location fetches weather data at its trail-level elevation (elevation_base_m) for accurate soil and temperature readings.
What does Unrideable mean?
A score below 2.5/10. Hard suppression gates trigger for: snow cover at trail elevation, active snowfall, severe wind gusts above 80 km/h, prolonged thunderstorms (over 50% of daylight hours), or extreme cold (max temp below -5°C).
What is hero dirt?
The ideal soil moisture level (roughly 0.10-0.14 m³/m³) where trails have enough moisture for grip and tack but no standing water or mud. Too dry means loose and dusty; too wet means ruts and erosion. The scoring model peaks at this sweet spot.
Are these the same spots as the ski leaderboard?
Yes, the same mountain locations. Great ski days and great MTB days are seasonal opposites: skiers want deep snow and cold; riders want dry trails and warm weather.
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