El Niño and the coming ski season

Choosing a winter base means making plans before the snow arrives. A job, a room and a season pass can all be settled while the mountain is still brown. So when scientists forecast a powerful El Niño, the obvious question is where the good snow will be.

There is useful information in the outlook for 2026/27. Its value lies in understanding the odds, the differences between regions and the limits of a forecast made months ahead. The other part of the story is longer: the winters we remember from the 1990s now sit within a changing climate.

What scientists are predicting for 2026/27

NOAA’s 10 September assessment says El Niño is already established and strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter. WMO’s 3 September update puts the likelihood of it persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.

Those numbers describe the tropical Pacific climate pattern. They are not probabilities of deep powder, a white Christmas or an uninterrupted ski season. WMO stresses that other ocean and atmospheric conditions can alter the regional response, even during a very strong event.

How can a warm ocean change a ski season?

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Changes in tropical Pacific temperatures, winds and rainfall reinforce one another. The resulting shifts in atmospheric circulation can alter jet streams and the routes storms take far from the equator. La Niña is the cool phase; neutral conditions sit between them. Events differ in their location, strength and duration.

For skiing, three different questions matter: how much precipitation arrives, how much falls as snow and how long that snow survives. A wet winter can still disappoint at lower elevations if storms bring rain. A cold, dry month can preserve an existing base without producing a single powder day. Seasonal averages cannot resolve which of those days will coincide with your week off.

This is also why “above normal” needs a reference period. NOAA and JMA’s outlooks use 1991 to 2020 climate normals. Their categories describe a whole season relative to that baseline. A 50% chance of below-normal snowfall does not mean 50% less snow, or snow on half the days.

The Alps: the snowline matters more than the label

The Swiss CH2018 assessment describes ENSO’s direct influence on Switzerland as generally small. That is a useful check on sweeping claims about an “El Niño powder winter” across France, Austria, Italy and Switzerland. It does not rule out an influence, but it gives us little basis for picking a winning Alpine resort from the Pacific index alone.

The Met Office describes indirect European effects, including increased chances of milder, wetter and windier conditions in the UK in autumn and early winter, with a possible colder late-winter response. This is UK context, not an Alpine snowfall forecast. Transferring it directly to the Alps would skip the regional weather that actually delivers snow.

Our planning interpretation: compare the elevation of the slopes you will use, their aspect and access to higher terrain. A high summit on the resort map tells you less if most of your skiing happens much lower down. Watch the forecast snowline and freezing level as storms approach. A village can be rainy while upper lifts receive snow, and a snowy summit can still be inaccessible in strong winds.

The United States: a clearer pattern, with plenty of exceptions

NOAA’s 17 September outlook favours wetter conditions across much of the southern US through winter, including California, while warmth is favoured across much of the northern tier. It also retains a weaker dry signal over the interior Northwest and Great Lakes. These are broad seasonal tendencies; coastal California precipitation probabilities are not Sierra Nevada snowfall probabilities.

NOAA also flags differences from earlier very strong El Niños: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is negative, and the pattern of North Pacific warmth differs. That makes a straight replay of 1997/98 or 2015/16 a poor assumption.

In NOAA’s historical snowfall analysis, El Niño tends to favour parts of the southern US and suppress snow across much of the northern belt, including the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Higher, colder parts of the Southwest can benefit when the southern storm track is active. The analysis also shows substantial differences between individual El Niño winters: an average pattern is not the result every time.

Our planning interpretation: southern mountain areas have a reason to watch the storm track with interest. Northern resorts have a reason to keep expectations flexible. Neither case justifies promising a resort total. In the Northeast, extra moisture only helps skiing when cold air is present; rain and thaw episodes belong in the same planning conversation as snowstorms.

Japan: use the regional probabilities

JMA’s outlook issued on 18 September covers December 2026 to February 2027. Its snowfall probabilities make the difference between Hokkaido and parts of Honshu more useful than a blanket verdict on “Japow”.

These are regional snowfall categories, not individual resort forecasts. In Hokkaido’s Sea of Japan region, below-normal and near-normal snowfall share the highest probability. Describing that as a confident forecast of a poor winter would overstate it.

JMA’s temperature outlook gives Hokkaido a 40% chance each of near-normal and above-normal temperatures, compared with a 60% chance of above-normal temperatures in Hokuriku and Kanto Koshin. A warmer-than-normal season can still contain cold spells and heavy snow. It can also bring more awkward conditions at elevations close to the rain-snow boundary.

Our planning interpretation: take the regional warmth and snowfall signals seriously, while leaving room for good weeks. Check the actual mountain forecast before deciding between bases or committing to travel for a particular storm. Read our Niseko season guide for the practical side of living and working there.

Scandinavia: Atlantic weather still has a large say

Norway and Sweden cannot sensibly share one snow forecast. The North Atlantic Oscillation describes changes in the Atlantic pressure pattern and westerly winds; blocking and the polar vortex also affect European winter weather. El Niño interacts with these drivers rather than setting one unchanging circulation pattern for the whole winter.

Temperature matters alongside precipitation. MET Norway explains that warming can reduce snowfall days in milder places, while additional precipitation can still fall as snow in colder inland or mountain areas. That helps explain why wet coastal, cold inland and high mountain locations can respond differently. It is climate context, not a forecast for this December.

Our planning interpretation: the evidence here does not support a confident Scandinavia-wide snowfall prediction for 2026/27. Compare local elevation, coastal exposure and historical season dates. Keep wind closures, rain followed by refreezing, and daylight in mind alongside fresh snow. A cold destination can preserve snow well without receiving frequent big falls.

What has changed over roughly the last 30 years?

The broad concern is how reliably snow remains on the ground, especially at the edges of winter and in milder locations. The evidence does not show an identical decline at every mountain, or each winter getting worse than the last. Large natural swings remain.

A note on the dates: there is no single matched 1996 to 2026 dataset behind this guide. The studies below put the last three decades in context using their own observation periods. Their figures measure different things and should not be ranked against one another or relabelled as a uniform “30-year loss”.

Alps: less persistent snow, with a complicated recent history

Matiu and colleagues analysed stations across six Alpine countries over 1971 to 2019. Averaged across stations, November-to-May mean snow depth declined by 8.4% per decade and snow-cover duration by 5.6% per decade. Losses were more pronounced around the transition to snow-free conditions, including spring and lower elevations.

The history since the 1990s is especially revealing: winter snow depths partly recovered from the low values of that decade, while spring depths continued to decline. Regional trends differed even at the same elevation. These are natural-snow measurements, not a count of days that groomed, snowmaking-supported pistes opened.

Western US: an earlier peak and a shorter snowpack season

The EPA’s 2024 assessment reports that, from 1982 to 2023, the snowpack season shortened at 80% of the western US monitoring sites studied. Across those sites, the average reduction was about 15 days. Peak snowpack also shifted earlier by nearly seven days on average. These are observations over 41 years, not a forecast of resort opening dates or a 30-year snowfall percentage.

Japan: long-term losses can coexist with huge storms

JMA and MEXT’s 2025 assessment finds that annual maximum snow depth has decreased in the observed Sea of Japan regions since 1962. It also stresses the large year-to-year variation. Heavy snowfall episodes still occur, and warming has increased snowfall in some individual events. One dramatic storm therefore says little about the direction of a multi-decade snow record.

Scandinavia: the south, coast and season edges are different

Sweden’s SMHI records shorter snow-cover seasons in southern areas, with declines visible since the mid-1980s. Its indicator does not show an equally clear long-term change in maximum depth across the country or in snow-cover days in northern Norrland. That distinction matters when discussing Scandinavian skiing.

MET Norway’s comparison of 1961 to 1990 with 1991 to 2020 finds about ten fewer snowfall days per winter in both Oslo and Tromsø. These are days with new snow, not days with snow lying on the ground. Its separate 2026 study of 27 stations over 1961 to 2025 identifies especially noticeable snow-cover reductions in spring and autumn, while noting gaps in observations above 1,000 metres.

What happens after this El Niño?

During 2027: NOAA’s September seasonal discussion anticipates significant weakening by spring, with neutral conditions possible later in spring. That is a forecast to revisit as the event develops. It does not establish a La Niña winter for 2027/28, or identify where next season’s best snow will fall.

Over the following decades: an ENSO phase change does not reset the warming background. The IPCC projects shorter snow-cover seasons and reduced snow extent with further warming, with differences between regions and elevations. For seasonal workers and resorts, the implication is greater pressure on dependable natural snow, particularly where winter temperatures are already close to freezing.

Japan illustrates why emissions and location both matter. JMA projects declining snow depth and snowfall across Japan under its 4°C global warming scenario; under its 2°C scenario, the clearer declines are in Honshu and farther south, while Hokkaido’s changes are smaller and harder to project. These are end-of-century scenarios relative to the late twentieth century, not predictions for the year after El Niño.

Future El Niños also need careful wording. The IPCC assesses increasing ENSO-related rainfall variability in a warmer climate, while changes in the amplitude of the Pacific temperature cycle are less straightforward. “Every future El Niño will be stronger” goes beyond that evidence. A powerful event this year is no basis for calling every subsequent winter a new record.

What this means for your season

Our practical reading of the evidence is to use the seasonal outlook as one part of choosing a base, then make day-to-day decisions from local conditions. For someone working a whole winter, the details of the placement can matter as much as the broad snow signal.

• Ask about a slow start. Before accepting a role, establish what happens to work, accommodation and start dates if the resort opens late or opens only part of its terrain.
• Look at usable terrain. Check where the pistes and lifts you will actually use sit on the mountain, including access when lower runs are closed.
• Separate season length from powder frequency. A place can retain a skiable base for months and still have long gaps between storms. Decide which matters most to you.
• Include the other conditions. Wind, visibility, rain, refreezing and transport disruption can change a day even after fresh snowfall. Seasonal ENSO forecasts cannot tell you whether a lift or road will open.
• Update your expectations. Revisit agency outlooks as new issues arrive, then move to local forecasts, lift reports and official avalanche bulletins close to the day.

For the next step, our guide to reading snow conditions explains the daily report, and the seasonal hiring calendar helps with timing your job search. El Niño gives us a reason to pay attention this winter. The details of each mountain will still decide the experience.

Sources and forecast dates

This is PeakWave’s synthesis of public meteorological assessments and research, not an original seasonal forecast. Practical interpretations are labelled above. Forecast links may now display newer issues than those cited here. The regional summary is qualitative; it is not a resort ranking or a set of calculated snow probabilities.

• NOAA: ENSO diagnostic discussion

  10 September 2026; archived issue

• WMO: El Niño outlook into 2027

  3 September 2026

• Met Office: how ENSO works

  Background explanation

• NOAA: US seasonal outlook

  17 September 2026 issue read; rolling page

• NOAA: El Niño and North American snowfall

  Historical analysis, 1959 to 2023

• Swiss climate scenarios: CH2018 technical report

  Section 3.1, climate variability; PDF

• Met Office: El Niño and Europe in 2026

  11 June 2026; broad context, not a resort forecast

• Met Office: seasonal climate drivers

  NAO, ENSO and the polar vortex

• JMA: winter snowfall probabilities

  18 September 2026, December to February outlook; interactive map

• JMA: winter temperature probabilities

  18 September 2026; interactive map

• Matiu et al.: observed Alpine snow trends

  The Cryosphere, 2021; observations from 1971 to 2019

• EPA: Climate Change Indicators, fifth edition

  2024 report, snowpack section, printed page 36; EPA archive

• JMA and MEXT: Climate Change in Japan 2025

  Summary, snow observations and projections, pages 14 and 15; PDF

• SMHI: Sweden’s snow indicator

  Updated February 2025; station series through 2020/21

• MET Norway: changing snowfall days

  October 2024; compares 1961 to 1990 with 1991 to 2020; Norwegian

• MET Norway: snow cover and warming

  August 2026; 27 stations, 1961 to 2025; Norwegian

• IPCC AR6: regional climate impacts

  Working Group I, Chapter 12, 2021

• IPCC AR6: future ENSO and rainfall

  Working Group I, Chapter 4, section 4.4.3.2, 2021

Next editorial refresh: check the October NOAA and JMA bulletins before treating this snapshot as the latest outlook.