Annual research edition
State of the Seasons: 2026 research edition
This is a 2026 publication reviewing completed 2025 observations and longer-term research. It is not a full-year account of 2026, which is still under way at this edition's 11 October cutoff. The purpose is to connect global indicators with sensible questions about ski seasons, coastlines and seasonal life, without inventing local forecasts.
The measured year, comparison baseline and geographic scale matter as much as the headline number.
The evidence at this edition's cutoff
| Indicator | Finding | Period and baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Global temperature | +1.43 ±0.13°C | 2025 versus 1850–1900 |
| European snow-covered area | 31% below average | March 2025 versus March 1991–2020 |
| European glaciers | Net mass loss in every region | 2025 annual mass balance |
What did the last complete year's evidence show?
WMO places 2025 among the three warmest years recorded and identifies 2015–2025 as the eleven warmest years. Its report was published on 23 March 2026. The distinction between report year and observation year is essential: the number above describes 2025, not a final assessment of 2026.WMO, State of the Global Climate 2025
An annual global anomaly is also different from a sustained global warming level. Treat this report as a dated reading of published evidence. It does not offer an attribution study of a particular resort's season, and it does not claim that the experience at one beach or mountain tracks the global average.
What stood out for mountains and snow?
The European report records March 2025 snow-covered area 31% below the 1991–2020 March average, the third lowest since 1983. The geographic pattern matters: this continental measure is not a 31% reduction in Alpine piste snow or in the length of every ski season.C3S/WMO, ESOTC 2025 snow chapter, Figure 13.2
For our editorial interpretation, the priority is to keep snow extent, snow depth, glacier mass and ski operations separate. They answer different questions. A destination can have operational information that is useful for a visit without possessing a long enough, consistent record to quantify its own climate trend.
What stood out for oceans and surfing?
C3S/WMO reports a record annual sea-surface temperature for the European ocean region in 2025. That adds context to concern about marine ecosystems, but water temperature is not a measure of surf quality. The report's European ocean domain is also much larger than the conditions at a particular bathing beach.C3S/WMO, European State of the Climate 2025
We therefore direct surfers to the separate wave-climate guide for the research on swell, and to current conditions for an actual session. The useful connection is between large-scale pressure and local questions about access, coastal change and stewardship. We do not manufacture a league table of future surf destinations from a temperature record.
How much of the future is still shaped by choices?
UNEP's November 2025 Emissions Gap Report estimates about 2.8°C warming over this century under current policies, and 2.3–2.5°C with full implementation of national pledges. This is a dated policy assessment, distinct from the conditional experiments used in ski and ocean studies.UNEP · Emissions Gap Report
The editorial implication is to consider adaptation and emissions together. Ask how a destination plans for changing conditions and how travel and operations are being improved. Keep targets, implemented measures and measured outcomes in separate categories. Neither a promise nor a scenario should be described as an outcome already achieved.
How to use this annual edition
Use this page as a dated starting point and follow the original sources when quoting a number. The topic guides explain sport and regional differences. For next season's plans, add current local information and a dated seasonal outlook. This edition makes no claim to have measured the entire 2026 season or independently reviewed the underlying scientific research.
Sources, method and updates
Editorial cutoff: 11 October 2026. WMO and C3S/WMO supply the observed indicators; UNEP supplies dated policy context. We preserve each baseline and do not calculate a composite score. European snow area excludes water bodies, glaciers and ice sheets. The separate snow-mass product excludes mountains, so it is not used here to describe Alpine snowpack.
This is a PeakWave editorial synthesis of the sources below. We do not claim an independent scientific review or endorsement by their authors.
Read the source definitions and limitations
- WMO, 2025 climate indicator sheet
WMO's March 2026 summary gives the 2025 global temperature anomaly as 1.43 ±0.13°C above 1850–1900. This is annual observational uncertainty, not a future scenario range.
- C3S/WMO, ESOTC 2025 snow chapter, Figure 13.2
March 2025 European snow-covered area was 31% below the 1991–2020 March average, third lowest since 1983. Water bodies, glaciers and ice sheets are masked. The separate snow-mass calculation excludes mountains and is not used as an Alpine snowpack measure here.
- C3S/WMO, European State of the Climate 2025
Published April 2026. Reports conditions during 2025, including net glacier mass loss across every European region and record annual European ocean sea-surface temperature.
- WMO, State of the Global Climate 2025
Published 23 March 2026. Annual global temperature in 2025, approximately 1.43°C above 1850–1900. The accompanying WMO indicator sheet reports ±0.13°C uncertainty. Publication year and observation year differ.
- UNEP · Emissions Gap Report
Current-policy warming around 2.8°C over this century; full national pledges 2.3–2.5°C. Annual greenhouse-gas emissions in 2035 need to be 35% / 55% below 2019 for 2°C / 1.5°C-aligned pathways. This policy assessment is separate from the IPCC SSP experiments.
Edition history and next editorial review
: Initial 2026 research edition. Added completed 2025 observations from WMO and C3S/WMO and November 2025 UNEP policy context. No full-year 2026 observation is claimed.
Next planned editorial review: , to check newly published annual assessments and relevant research. This is an editorial target, not an automated update or a promise of new data on that date.
For corrections or source suggestions, contact PeakWave and include the passage and original evidence.